The American Tragedy? Long term vs short term and why poker's different

This past weekend I celebrated my one year anniversary. Kristina and I have been together since high school, 9 years altogether. We stayed at the Hilton downtown, the same place we spent our wedding night. We checked in around 5 and took a cab to Vivo, a tex mex restaurant on the east side of I-35. Rather than get ready for the rest of the night we went casual with what we already had on. I was wearing my Poker Players Alliance shirt that says on the back "Poker: An American Tradition".

Dinner was good. We both got hammered on $9 margaritas. I was ESPECIALLY happy because of the Sudafed I had taken earlier in the day. After it was over I had a really interesting experience with the valet attendant that started with my shirt.

We were waiting on the cab to come back to pick us up and I had to run back to the bathroom. So I'm washing my hands and in comes this skinny guy with long brown surfer-esque hair and he says "Poker the American Tragedy!" I'm like WTF are you talking about??!?! For the brief minute that I'm in there he's basically talking about degenerate gamblers and how people have lost everything, their houses etc. So right away I know this guy doesn't have a freakin' clue as to what he's talking about. Honestly I'm thinking he's exactly the kind of person that would rally against the PPA's cause.

I don't remember what I said to him in there exactly, but it was something along the lines of not everyone's a sick gambler blowing their paychecks. But he was still of the opinion that these responsible people were the exception not the rule, and that most of us were gambling our lives away. The weirdest part of it all was I left the bathroom, walked out through Vivo the way I came in and bam! he's already in the parking lot saying hi to me again. I'm like shit, either this guy's a magician or I'm drunker than I think I am.

Anyways, Kristina and I ended up waiting over an hour for our cab before we called another company. We ended up talking to the valet for a little bit out in the parking lot and I tried to explain to him why poker was different from all other forms of casino gambling. So for those who still don't understand the difference here it goes.

The difference lies in short term vs. long term expectation. Everyone knows that casino games are always rigged in the houses favor and that you may win in the SHORT TERM, but if you play LONG TERM you can never win. That is true.

The reason poker is different is because you are NOT playing against the house, you are playing against other humans. The casino makes money off poker by taking a small percentage of each pot (the rake), but as a poker player you are making money by playing better than your opponents. Humans make mistakes and if you know how to exploit those mistakes well there you go, you're making money. That's where skill comes in. Now let me explain the luck factor because it can't be ignored.

Think about it this way: if you've ever watched the World Series of Poker on ESPN you'll often see them display percentages next to hands that show how often this hand will win and that hand will lose. For example lets say all the money is in pre-flop and you've got KK to someone's JJ. KK is 80% to win and JJ is only 20% before the community cards are even dealt. Or lets say you've got AK to someone's AQ. AK is 70% to win and AQ is 30%.

These are situations if you play enough you'll see again and again, and bad players will consistently put their money in with the lower percentages more than good players will. This again brings me back to long term vs. short term. In the SHORT TERM you can get lucky and hit your winning card 20% or 30% of the time in the above examples. But in the LONG TERM the 80% and 70% hands will win more than they'll lose.

So is there luck involved in poker? Absolutely. Is there really skill involved? Absolutely. The skill is in exploiting players who will put their money at risk when they're behind more often than not and you have them crushed percentage wise. You do that often enough and you will win more than you lose.

That's why poker is different than all other forms of gambling: the human element and being able to choose positive expectation situations. When you play craps or roulette or slot machines you'll always be behind in the percentages and therefore will never win in the LONG TERM because the casinos simply won't let you. That's the way their business works.

The moral of the story: don't be ignorant like the Vivo valet and lump poker into same category as sports betting or casino gambling. It's not the same. And while there are degenerate gamblers in poker that don't know how to manage money, they're the exception and not the rule. If I've convinced you of this at all I suggest you check out the PPA's website. They're fighting ignorance on this issue up in Washington in the attempts to make online poker legal and regulated in the United States.